Foreign trade results for February were worse than analysts had expected. Only in March the impact of what is happening in Ukraine will be fully visible. Businesses are still struggling with parts shortages, and production materials are still becoming more expensive. This problem is likely to continue. This follows from the statements of the economists in question.

According to data published by the Czech Statistical Office on Wednesday, the Czech Republic’s foreign goods trade ended the second month of the year with a deficit of 4.4 billion krona, a year-on-year decline of 25.7 billion krona. Analysts expect a surplus of six billion crowns.

“Year-on-year balance was pushed up mainly by higher electricity exports, with higher oil and gas imports, lower auto and parts exports and higher base metal imports having a negative effect,” said UniCredit economists. Jiři Pour Bank.

Exports increased seven percent compared to last February. Raiffeisenbank analyst David Vagenknecht points out that the trade surplus has a negative effect on exports, indicating a weaker pace of production. According to him, the production of cars at least in the first two months of this year since 2010. The problem is mainly in the missing parts.

Analysts were surprised by the 16 percent year-on-year increase in imports. “The dynamics of imports have been blown by high commodity prices on world markets. Trade in natural gas and oil has increased the deficit to 8.2 billion crowns from 7.2 billion crowns in January,” said Vagenknecht.

According to Tomáš Volf of Citfin, another bad news for foreign trade is the company’s orders in Germany, which is the Czech Republic’s strongest trading partner. “In the same month, namely February, orders fell by 2.2 percent month-on-month and returned to the red zone after three months,” he said.

In early February, Raiffeisenbank expects its foreign trade balance to be 60 billion crowns. According to Vagenknecht, with the current developments, it may be lower, given the current uncertainty, a deficit this time of year cannot be ruled out, he added.