– Although Putin has not yet received a victory march, there are many indications that he believes it is too early to believe that he has given up. I fear the logical consequence of the resistance he faces is to intensify the use of force to defeat the Ukrainian defences.
This is what professor Lars P. Haga in the air force leadership and air military leadership department at the Air War College at the Norwegian Defense College does.
He teaches recent history, international politics, national crisis management, air power and technology. He spent several years researching specifically about Russian air power and military might.
– Most likely scenario
Russian MPs attend a session of the State Duma in Moscow
Russian lawmakers in the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, in Moscow on March 4, pass tough new laws to punish those who do not blindly comply with the official views of Russian authorities on the war in Ukraine. A number of international media are now fleeing the country.
Russian State DumaReuters
What he is seeing now on the battlefields within Ukraine and in the airspace over the largest cities, does not give him reason to believe that the war is coming to an end. On the contrary, this may only be the beginning of a vicious war with unimaginable loss and suffering.
Huge Russian troops are deep in Ukraine. They continued to advance, and several large cities were already under siege or in the process of being besieged. This is currently a short war, but it can prove to be very durable.
– What did it take for Putin to turn around and realize that the battle was lost? Are peace talks pointless now?
– I have a big problem seeing what Putin will turn around. Today, the parties are so far apart that it is hard to imagine that peace talks could produce quick results. I think the most likely scenario is that the Russians continue their plans to take control of important cities, Kyiv is no exception, using more force, military expert Lars P. Haga replied to ABC News.
– It seems obvious that he really means what he says
He himself has followed Putin’s TV speech, and believes it provides no reason for optimism, on the contrary.
– Much of what Putin has expressed in televised speeches, he has also said before. I’m not a psychologist, and I can’t look inside Putin’s head or see what’s going on in his close circle, but it seems clear that he really means what he says. This is not tactical rhetoric, said the Russian researcher.
– Are there people around Putin who can give him a correction in terms of perception of reality and the realism that Russia can win over Ukraine?
– It’s also hard to answer, given how blurry the closest circle around Putin is. But it seems that the trend in recent years has been that he is increasingly surrounding himself with yes people, and also not listening much to other people.
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Russia-Ukraine-War-Drones Volunteer Troops
This drone image provided by Ukrainian security forces, shows a building being blown up near the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine. The exact date and time of the image is unknown.
– The Russian-backed puppet regime in Kyiv will not be sustainable in the long term
If Russia “wins” the war on the battlefield in the first phase, and takes control of the largest cities, Putin will deploy his most loyal supporters. The big question is whether the Russian-backed regime will stay in Kyiv, or will it fail.
The hatred of Putin has probably never been greater than that of the Ukrainian population since he ordered the invasion. Many soldiers and civilians have already died, which has created very deep wounds that take generations to repair, previous researchers have warned against.
– The Russian-backed puppet regime in Kyiv can only survive with a large Russian military or security force presence, and will not be sustainable in the long term, emphasizes Associate Professor Lars P. Haga.
– That must be very demoralizing
– What do you think about the fighting spirit of Russian soldiers, do they know what they are fighting for and fighting against?
– It seems that too many soldiers are unprepared, both in what they have to fight at all, and what they stand for and fight against. It seems they had predicted a quick and easy move to Ukraine, and now they face fierce opposition. Must be very demoralizing, believe experts of Russian military strength.
The biggest foreign media fled Russia
Associate Professor Lars P. Haga in the Section for Air Force and Air Military Leadership at the College of Air Warfare at the Norwegian College of Defense.
What will happen next internally in Russia, no one knows. Those who took to the streets to protest were beaten with an iron fist.
Thousands of Russians have been arrested in the open. At the same time, Putin is tightening his grip on his own people. Freedom of speech is curtailed and censorship continues to reach new heights.
Some of the world’s biggest media outlets are now leaving the country after the Russian Duma, the Russian National Assembly, passed a new law making it a criminal offense to spread “fake news” about the Russian military. The sentence is 15 years.
It’s hard for Russia to get a true picture of the war
– Is it conceivable that Russia will take to the streets on a large scale, and eventually overthrow the regime?
– Hardly in the short term. For those who do not follow the international media or some of the free media in Russia, it is difficult to get a true picture of war. The effects of the sanctions haven’t really hit most people eitherpoints out Associate Professor Lars P. Haga in the Section for Air Force and Air Military Leadership at the Air War College at the Norwegian Defense College.
The European Union, G7 countries and a number of other countries have imposed some of the toughest post-war sanctions against Russia. Many of the sanctions are aimed at the Russian oligarchs and Putin’s inner circle. Some experts have warned that the sanctions would damage the Russian economy and create internal pressure on the Putin regime.
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Ukraine Russia War Day In Photo
A statue of Taras Shevchenko, Ukrainian poet and national symbol, is destroyed after a night air raid on the village of Byshiv, west of Kyiv, Ukraine, on Friday, March 4, 2022. The Russian war machine has wreaked havoc in the country and killed many civilians.
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