9/11 exposed this pathology in the Islamic world. But the diagnosis and cure disappeared after twenty years. The simple, comforting explanation at first is that jihadism is simply a manifestation of the absence of democracy. After the so-called Arab Spring, we already know that it’s more complicated.
Where there is no middle class and moderate “bourgeois” values, where there is no common idea of \u200b\u200bthe state and instead of citizens there is a superstitious mass, there democracy is just a formalism. Radical Islam is experiencing new waves, and in 2014 there was even a quasi-state entity, Islamic State, on the border between Iraq and Syria. Is there any hope?
A stable monarchy… and Iran
Conservative monarchies proved the most stable, held together by the natural legitimacy of the king, who, however, ruled in a moderate and evolutionary manner. Examples are Morocco or Oman, to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia, which sometimes lack moderation. Palace intrigues and quirks present the monarchy’s ever-present potential to one day delegitimize itself.
Interesting Iraq. There have been a thousand and one crises, but there have been relatively free elections and a fragmented country that knows the meaning of the word compromise. Lebanon is in a similar situation. “Managerially” it didn’t go well, but it was at least a simplistic remnant of the vision of democratizing the region since 2002. The two countries also show how serious the Sunni-Shia divide is.
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