Today’s news is the attack of Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles on the Pskov airport, where the 334th Berlin Transport Aviation Regiment is stationed, equipped with Il-76MD transport aircraft. According to Russia’s TASS agency, four planes were “damaged”. But in the videos that have surfaced on the web, these planes are burning like torches, there might not be much left. Eventually, the Russians corrected their statement, citing two planes destroyed and four planes “slightly damaged”. Instead, the Ukrainian side provided information about six heavily damaged Il-76s – out of 119 belonging to the Russian Air Force. I wonder how many of them are actually operating now – and it’s not cheap… Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, in a beautiful red T-shirt with the words CCCP (USSR written in Cyrillic), shouted on Russian television that it impossible because unmanned aerial vehicles with Ukraine fly all the way to Pskov, all the way to the border with Estonia. He claimed the attack was carried out by NATO from the Baltic countries.

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According to reports, Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (simple cruise missiles) have also hit military facilities near other cities in Russia, including the Oryol, Ryazan, Kaluga regions and even Moscow. However, little is known about the other hits.

Russia also carried out a very powerful missile attack on Ukraine, but most likely it was not a retaliatory strike, it was planned in advance. According to Ukrainian sources, 28 Ch-101 and Ch-555 cruise missiles and 16 Shahed drones were launched from the Tu-95MS strategic bomber in Kiev. Most of them were shot down by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses, though probably not in the numbers reported by the Ukrainian side (all cruise missiles and 15 of the 16 martyrs) – some fires were in Kiev, and probably not all of them were caused by debris falling. There are rumors of two deaths in Kiev and six in Ukraine overall, as Odessa was also a victim of the attack, this time with a Kalibr 3M14 missile fired from a warship.

Good news from ahead. South of Orichiva, the entire Russian first line of defense was breached. Currently the battle for the villages of Nowoprokopivka on the west side and Werbowe on the east side has started. Between the two villages, the Ukrainian army broke through to the south at a distance of about 5 km, approaching the village of Ocheretuvate, which was already on the edge of the second main belt of Russian defense. Now, the most important task of the Ukrainian army is to widen the gap, although this is also an opportunity to take over the first position of the main defense belt, which is currently occupied only by the BARS reserve regiment, poorly equipped and trained. regular troop. However, wedges that are too narrow which can easily be cut off from the main force should not be allowed to form. At the same time, as Ukrainian forces consolidate their advance there, Ukrainian artillery will be able to threaten the Tokmak transport hub, which plays a key role in supplying Russian troops.

In the other main offensive direction to the south, in the Velyka Novosiłka area, Ukrainian forces were still unable to break through captured Staromajorskie and Urozhayne. A positional battle was now taking place there, and both sides suffered heavy losses.

Russian attacks near Kupiansk and Sviatov continued. Reports from this section have been conflicting so far, with the Russians claiming they have made little progress on the ground, and the Ukrainians reporting that all their attacks have been repulsed.

Also read: Ukrainian Attacks in Many Directions? Americans could be wrong

In Bakhmut, south of the city, Ukrainian troops are still on the offensive and they are supposed to occupy a new piece of land near the village of Andriivka. According to Russian sources, fighting is still ongoing west of the Kliszczivka-Andriivka-Kurdyumivka line. Further south, near Donetsk, the Russians attacked but were repulsed.

Under what conditions will Russia withdraw from Ukraine?

We all wonder how this war will end. It’s not that simple, because what does Putin have to lose? Russia is not going to let him go. Society supports war, even though this support is a bit odd: it will only exist until a bill is passed. Russia doesn’t like going to the front on Ukraine. There was one internet user who was very supportive of this war, but when he was about to get a call, he went straight to Kazakhstan. And here in Kazakhstan, he is still very much in favor of the war. And how to understand the broad soul of Russia? After all, no mutiny threatens Putin. The people have been well trained by the media, they have been subjected to constant propaganda from generation to generation, similar to what happened during the Soviet Union. Russia is still the only country in the world where order reigns and is guided by centuries-old traditional values, resisting the degeneracy and degradation of the West and its grave decay. Like the old joke about a Russian woman receiving a bottle of Christian Dior perfume from her husband. He sniffed it and said: The West is rotting, but how good it smells…

That is why Russia believes that a war with Ukraine, and later with Poland, and finally with the rotten (albeit sweet-smelling) countries of the West is a historical imperative for them. So they see nothing wrong if the president sends them to the front in Ukraine, let alone if he sends someone else. And there was no spark of rebellion in Russia: when partial mobilization was announced, young Russians flew en masse, even to areas hostile to Georgia, but no one protested. Those who did not run away were picked up and obediently went to the front.

So let’s ask the first question: what does Russia have to lose if it finds this war unprofitable, too costly? There may not be such a level at all. Let us remind you that during World War II, the Soviets lost 11.7 million officers and soldiers at the front, and today only a quarter of a million people are killed. With losses of this magnitude, Russia was able to fight for nearly 50 years, but did not collapse at that time, and will not collapse at this time. So, Russia’s defeat will not be a hindrance.

Also read: Something is broken. Poland is becoming an increasingly troublesome ally of Ukraine

Well, maybe the loss of military equipment? Russia has lost over 2,500 tanks alone, and documented losses are as high as 2,000, but many remain undocumented. But where, from the remaining few thousand in stock, they will collect more and send them to the front as well. Moreover, its production, although in poor shape and of poor quality due to the lack of many previously imported elements, continued. So there will be no shortage of equipment. And if that wasn’t enough, the guys with the assault rifles would move, they would manage without the tanks, at most the losses would add up. After all, it doesn’t matter.

Or maybe the loss of Crimea will be an unbearable blow for Russia? And why did it happen? If he loses, combat capability must be restored and the peninsula must be reoccupied. Mobilize new groups of the less fortunate, train them a bit, give them what they have and attack, let them fight, let them conquer more territory. Who could withstand such constant aggression? In the end, Ukraine will not stand it. Or the West just can’t take it anymore. Someone will eventually crack. But not Russia, because why did they leave it at that?

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So he can take all of Ukraine back without leaving Russia anything? That doesn’t help much either. They will continue to press even if they have to temporarily stop the conflict. This is not the end of the war, but an ordinary operational pause to catch your breath and re-create combat capabilities, analyze mistakes, draw conclusions and recreate favorable situations. And then Russia will move again, because this is Russia and that’s all. Shaped by years of propaganda, based on completely falsified versions of history, society does whatever the authorities want. We suspect that if truly free and fair elections were held in Russia today, Putin would still win. Just like Stalin was in his time: he killed so many people ruthlessly, introduced intolerable regimes, trampled human dignity at every step, and when he died – everyone sincerely wept and wrung their hands – what would become of us now?

And brave historians who are trying to show the true history of the USSR and Russia are accused of “falsifying history”, for which in this country they are imprisoned. That’s why the Russian people believe in their historical mission.

Also read: Pope Francis addresses the young generation of Russia. And the milk spilled again

How to beat Russia?

One method is to include Ukraine in NATO after a possible victory, which could involve retaking Crimea, even if parts of Donbas, completely destroyed, remain in Russian hands along with the two separatist republics. It was necessary to deploy allied forces in Ukraine, if of course Ukraine would express its will, and to prevent a Russian attack.

Also read: After the NATO Summit. What are the guarantees for Ukraine and what about the demands of Poland

But that’s not a surefire way to do it. There is no guarantee that Russia will not decide to attack one of the NATO countries, especially if those countries have not changed much in terms of their defense approach and attitude towards Russia. If there is a fight between allies, if, for example, Donald Trump or someone like him wins in the US and America leaves the Old Continent, then – deal with it yourself, our problem is China. Opportunities can always arise. Nothing is permanent in international relations, there are only continuous efforts to maintain democracy and harmony among democratic countries.

Russia must eventually become such a country, but it will be very difficult. Maybe the country needs to be broken down into individual entities that can gain independence? In any case, the situation is not very attractive. Unfortunately, those who say that the beautiful world is over are right.

Read also: Viktor Yushchenko for “Polityka”. Why is the war still going on when Ukraine could have won it