We know that fertility rates are falling rapidly and half of Poland’s population wants to have two children, but in practice they fail to do so. But we don’t know why it is like this, let alone how to change it. And is that possible?

When in the early 19th century, with industrialization, the world population surpassed the one billion mark, the demographic “locomotive” began to run smoothly and a massive increase in the earth’s population began. The next billions appear faster and faster. In the interwar period, the population of the earth doubled, by the 1970s our number had reached four billion. And a year ago, on November 15, 2022, we celebrated the day of “eight billion”, because according to UN calculations, it was then that the world’s population reached this level.

However, although the earth’s population has increased by billions in the last 12 years, reaching the next threshold – nine billion – will probably take about 15 years, namely until 2037. Later, the dynamics of this process will decrease even more – to ten. billion people, we will reach it by the end of the century. And the demographic wheel will slow forever.

Although the rapid growth of the world’s population will stop at the beginning of the next century, at the same time the population of the European Union will decrease by almost 30 million people. Eurostat estimates show that, due to the influx of refugees from Ukraine, the EU population currently stands at just over 450 million people. The community will reach its peak population level in three years and will number 453 million people, after which the number will begin to decline to 420 million in 2100. Of course, the number of elderly people in the entire EU population is expected to increase. The number of people aged 80 and over will double – from 6% in 2022 to 15% in 2100¹.

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This discussion is published quarterly “Więź” fall 2023