The Monetary Policy Board (MPC) reacts to almost 14% of inflation. He took out more heavy cannons to fight it. It has just decided to raise interest rates for the ninth time in a row. The main interest rate at the National Bank of Poland from June 9 is 6 percent.

This is how all interest rates in NBP are formed after the last change:

• reference rate 6.00% on an annual basis,
• 6.50% race rate on an annual basis,
• deposit interest rate 5.50% on an annual basis,
• 6.05% re-discount rate on an annual basis,
• discount rate of 6.10% on an annual basis.

Interest rate increased by 0.75 percentage points., setting new long-term highs. Last time the reference rate was about 6 percent. in 2008, when the great world financial crisis broke out and the American investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed.

The increase in the NBP rate is not a surprise. No economist doubts the need to take another decisive action from the central bank, namely to suppress inflation. According to the NBP target, it should be at the 1.5-3.5 level, and the last time the indicator was in that range was in early 2021..

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The only doubts can be raised regarding the scale of the rate hike. The average forecast suggests an increase of 0.75 percentage point., which is the same as the previous month. Occasionally, there are voices that NBP may slow down slightly with an increase (+0.5 percentage point) or accelerate (+1 percentage point).

Pekao economists admit that this time is not surprising. Simultaneously already waiting for further rate hikeswhich will come at the next MPC meeting in July.

“That may not be the last increase” – confirms economist PKO BP.

In turn, experts from ING Bank ląski point out that in their base scenario, still target interest rate is 8.5%. “The rise in core inflation shows a strong secondary effect, which requires further increases,” they explained.

Experts from the Polish Institute of Economics (PIE) have a completely different estimate. Borrowers will prefer their vision. Assume that July rate hike will end cycle.

“We believe that the MPC rate will end the cycle at 6.5%.“- points out Jakub Rybacki, PIE analyst. He noticed that the actions taken by the MPC so far have reduced lending significantly – the number and value of mortgage loans sold were 40 percent lower than last year.

According to him, the decline will deepen in the coming months due to higher precautionary requirements. Subsequent rate hikes will have a moderate impact on demand for mortgage loans.

“The risk of a recession in the main EU economies will be an important factor for future decisions. The increased risk of a collapse in economic activity in euro area countries means lower interest rates hikes. We expect the July NBP inflation projections to show solid growth dynamics this year, but also a significant slowdown in 2023 “- said Rybacki.

Most interested in interest rates in NBP are all those who pay off loans in zlotys. Most Poles still have installments that are indirectly dependent (through the WIBOR rate) on interest rates.

Usually, an increase in the prime interest rate in the NBP should mean a more or less proportional increase in the lending and lending rates. It should be emphasized, however, that the WIBOR rate set by the bank has been ahead of the MPC moves for a long time. On Tuesday, WIBOR 3M was at the level of 6.72 percent, and WIBOR 6M was at the level of 6.97 percent.

At this interest rate, a typical loan installment was recently granted of 300 thousand. PLN for 25 years is at the level of about 2.4 thousand zloty. Compared to early October 2021 when interest rates were zero, it means that there was an increase in installments of more than 1.2 thousand. PLN – it’s the result of the calculation Totalmoney.pl.

Interest rates continued to increase by 0.75 percentage points. means increase monthly loan payments by around PLN 160. In such a situation, it is necessary to save almost 2.6 thousand zlotys of the household budget every month. zloty. For loans with higher amounts, rising interest rates will be more painful.

Savers may be content with rising interest rates. Those who keep money in their accounts can count on the generosity of the bank. It’s possible that it was also in response to the NBP’s move will raise deposit rates.

Speeches included about annual “ROR” bonds. There, the interest on the savings invested is accumulated every month, and the interest rate is exactly the same as the main NBP rate. In June it is 5.25 percent, and in July it will be 6 percent. Subsequent changes in NBP will be automatically translated into bond interest rates.

2-year bonds operate on the same principle. In turn, the 3-year securities depend on the WIBOR 6 million.

Damian Słomski, journalist at money.pl