As he pointed out, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had disrupted the existing order in Europe, including within the European Union, which shares leadership with France and Germany, with France playing a dominant role in military and diplomatic affairs and Germany in economic affairs. he added it the legal framework is based on the primacy of EU law in Member States, which has caused considerable tensions in eastern and western Europe, manifested on the one hand by the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU, and on the other hand by the opposition of Poland and Hungary in social issues.
The status quo is based on an agreement to export gas (as well as oil and coal) from Russia to Germany, primarily via the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Berlin and Moscow again held the fate of Central Europe in their hands. Germany’s economic interests were dominant, partly because the EU had not developed its own unified military strategy. This is what makes the status of Ukraine so inflamed. Its integration into the EU or NATO is not in Germany’s interests. Being the only major industrialized economy in the EU that relies on cheap energy imports from Russia, it will undermine their economic interests,” said Glasman.
“Poland leads Eastern European reaction”
He pointed out that the invasion of Ukraine shifted focus from the economic to the military sphere, in which Germany was weaker and reluctant, and France shared this reluctance. A military confrontation with Russia would shift power and resources to NATO, leading to a resurgence of US (and British) influence in Europe.
It is widely assumed in academic and political elite discourse that Brexit will lead to the marginalization of Britain in Europe and consolidation of the Franco-German axis in the EU. Rather the opposite happened. After the invasion of Ukraine, Britain took a firm stance on providing military and political support to the beleaguered Ukrainian nation. , and Brexit appears to have strengthened freedom of action in times of war. At the same time, Poland was leading the Eastern European reaction. It opened its borders to refugees and gave up arms. The alliance between Poland and the UK changed NATO and the EU – wrote Prof. Glasman.
He added that this Anglo-Polish coalition was joined by the Baltic countries, as well as Finland and Sweden, which abandoned the policy of neutrality that isolated Germany in Northern Europe. As a result, the United States began supplying Ukraine with more powerful weapons and sharing intelligence. During the first nine months of the war, President Emmanuel Macron held telephone conversations with Vladimir Putin while Germany was reluctant to provide anything other than a helmet.
The Polish government openly criticized Germany, even going so far as to demand compensation for the economic damage caused by World War II.
He explained that it was very important for Ukraine to emerge as a military actor and, contrary to fears, not be destroyed by Russia in three days. As he pointed out, this opened the door for an Anglo-Polish alliance, especially as bilateral dialogue between the two countries was well established and Britain deepened its military alliance with Ukraine since Russia’s conquest of Crimea.
Machiavelli wrote that political leadership is the ability to act in a timely manner, England and Poland did, France and Germany did not. Their interests and analysis make them difficult to understand and act on. This opened up space within NATO for the United States to take a more active role, and for northern European countries to join strengthened military alliances. NATO’s founding members, such as Italy, are becoming irrelevant; France and Germany have lost faith and belief,” Glasman wrote.
“Lenin once said that there are decades in which nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. The Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine is one of them. France and Germany lose their lead, Poland and Great Britain come to the fore, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries joined the new coalition, leaving Germany isolated in northern Europe. The Netherlands also actively supports the Anglo-Polish alliance. The balance of power in Europe shifted east and west towards the center. And this process has only just begun,” he said.
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