Morawiecki’s remarks raised concerns at the State Department. And President Duda’s statement clearly pleased Moscow’s propagandists.
The previous wheat embargo, announced by the government in April, could be explained by the 2023 elections. PiS wants to strengthen its weakening influence in the countryside by demonstratively showing how it takes the interests of farmers into account. In fact, this is an attempt to correct PiS policy, at the expense of the Ukrainian side, after making a big mistake.
The Minister of Agriculture PiS announced an increase in grain prices, advising not to sell them, while prices fell further (including due to the temporary launch of the grain corridor in the Black Sea, which PiS experts did not take into account).
Grain Wars
The European Union has shown understanding of Poland’s problems, which, despite PiS’s faults, have objective causes attributable to Ukraine’s agricultural efficiency.. They announced a suspension of Ukrainian imports until September 15.
This is to allow time for negotiations. In general, this required the transfer of Polish agriculture to processing, which happened to be done by Dutch agriculture, which was “threatened” by Polish agriculture at the time Poland joined the EU.
When the Ukrainian grain embargo was lifted, PiS unilaterally announced that the embargo would be maintained. Three years later, on September 18, Ukraine announced that it had filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Since Ukraine’s budget relies largely on food exports, this is especially painful for a country defending itself against Russian aggression.
Behind it also lies Russia’s withdrawal from the grain agreement and an attempt to block Ukraine’s grain exports by sea via the Black Sea (it should be added that this constitutes the largest share of Ukraine’s exports).
Clashes between Poland and Ukraine occurred at the UN session a few days later. President Volodymyr Zelensky said sharply: “It is disturbing how some people in Europe, some of our friends in Europe, play solidarity in political theater by making thrillers that contain no elements.”
Hours later, President Duda reacted to Zelensky’s words at an evening press conference, saying, “Ukraine is behaving like a drowning man who understands everything; by helping him, we have the right to defend ourselves from the danger that befell us.”
Morawiecki came to Duda’s aid, talking about suspending military aid to Ukraine. One might wonder to what extent he inherited the views of his father, who was known for his pro-Russian views.
Turning against Ukraine
PiS’s anti-Ukrainian policy changes can also be seen in its election campaign tactics. This is the argument used by the pro-Russian Confederation, which may carry weight in the next Sejm, costing PiS its current majority. Perhaps the calculation was that the anti-Ukrainian changes would take away votes from the Confederation, which criticized PiS for siding too much with Kiev.
The Polish embargo continued and after Slovakia and Romania withdrew from it, Poland continued the embargo only along with Hungary.
Words are no less important than embargoes, and often in politics, words are no less important than deeds.
An anti-Ukrainian campaign has been launched in the media close to PiS, which will be difficult to stop. This report does not specifically discuss the wheat export conflict. However, the greatest concerns began to emerge regarding Kiev’s alleged fundamental turn towards Germany.
Ukraine “loses” and “prefers” Germany
This hypothesis was put forward by Maria Przełomiec, who was previously pro-Ukrainian. This ad hoc thesis fits PiS’s constant attacks on Berlin and Kaczyński’s anti-German obsession.
Other commentators associated with PiS and Konfederacja went further. “It’s interesting,” wrote a commentator of the weekly “Sieci” – how by the end of September 2023, in a sense, Russia, Ukraine, Germany, the US and several European Union institutions and officials could be allies at the same time.[…] […])[…)The point of a strange alliance is to find a common enemy, or at least the culprit. And Poland should be the culprit”.
Why should Poland be guilty? Ukraine’s failures on the front lines.
Analyzing the Internet, we can conclude that the amount of information about Ukraine’s alleged military failures has increased significantly (contrary to increasingly positive NATO assessments). This intensity is disconcerting.
In the midst of current events, there has been a strong activation of Russian propaganda on the Internet. Ukrainian agriculture, as we can learn from anti-Ukrainian xenophobia and the new wave of trolling, is essentially a corrupt oligarchy, and Zelensky has offended Polish society and as a politician, he has completely lost his way.
This can only be commented on by saying that Zelensky will meet with Biden and Western leaders, while Duda can count on the most meetings with Erdogan, as happened in New York.
Which way is Kaczyński going?
One can only wonder if this is a signal that Kaczyński, who has long held up Orban’s Hungary as an example, has now decided to follow in the footsteps of Turkey, which, in the name of its own interests, stands between Russia and the West. However, what is possible for Türkiye is impossible for Poland.
In a dramatic war situation, anti-Ukrainianism, considering the Polish situation, meant pro-Russian regardless of any declaration.
PiS Moscow can consider PiS’s anti-Ukrainian actions a great success. Russian propaganda has attempted for years to divide Poland and Ukraine.
With its anti-Ukrainian stance, PiS condemns Poland for its deep international isolation. This is related to internal politics and efforts to maintain increasingly undemocratic and dictatorial power.
However, Kaczyński, perhaps subconsciously like Putin, underestimated the power of the West and Ukraine’s important role in world politics.
Poland risks not being recognized as a participant in the victory of Ukraine and the Western countries that supported it. The country will not benefit from post-war reconstruction plans, which will likely amount to huge international investments.
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