There may not be a need to raise rates further, but it is uncertain that, depending on the outcome of the projection from the 11th projection, the cycle will not resume – NBP board member Rafał Sura told Radio PiK. He added that inflation could increase further, but in the first half of 2023 it would slow down as long as the shield is maintained.

“Poland’s central bank started an upward cycle since October last year. It was very significant. We stopped at the level we are now observing (6.75% – PAP) and it is uncertain whether the central bank presents its forecasts for inflation in November and GDP growth, the upward cycle is not will continue. So far, we are seeing weak or even negative lending dynamics in the economy. So the actions we assume as central banks are paying off. There is no demand for credit at this point, creditworthiness is falling, entrepreneurs and consumers taking out loans have to spend a large part of their income to serve them. The ability of other entities to take out new loans is also declining. From a monetary policy point of view, the target has been achieved and it is necessary to see how this process will develop in the coming months ” – said Sura in the material posted on October 18 .

“At the same time, we observe that other central banks in the world are tightening their monetary policies, and as such we will see the economy cooling on a global scale. All of this should support lower borrowing, so inflation will weaken, and if inflation weakens. , the central bank in the future maybe he does not need to use the means of raising interest rates “- he added.

According to Sura, inflation is expected to be high in the coming months, with the possibility of a further slight increase.

In the first and second quarters of next year, Sura estimates that the CPI will slow down with the assumption that the government will extend its anti-inflation shield.

Sura has been a member of the NBP Management Board since 28 July. Previously, for 5.5 years he was a member of the Monetary Policy Board, from which he resigned in July – before the end of a full 6-year term.

On August 8, the decision of the President of the Republic of Poland of May 31 to appoint Rafał Sura as judge of the Supreme Administrative Court was published. Having failed to take the oath before the president, as required by law to take office, Sura did not become an NSA judge. (PAP Business)

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