Two games remain for Norway in the ongoing EC qualifiers: Spain (at home on Sunday) and Scotland (away on November 19). Norway could still be one of the 24 countries that will participate in the play-offs in Germany next year. The odds are very weak, but this is necessary for Norway to be one of the two best teams to place in the European Championship:

Current position: Scotland 15, Spain 12 (one game remaining), Norway 10, Georgia 4, Cyprus 0.

A: Norway must win its last two matches.

B: Since Spain beat Scotland on Thursday, Scotland are within reach. If Scotland also lose to Georgia away in November, it would be a Scotland-Norway final at Hampden Park on November 19. With a win there, Norway is in the European Commission. Norway can get a maximum of 16 points, Scotland now has 15 points.

C: If Scotland draw against Georgia, Norway will have to beat Scotland by two goals in Glasgow to take the head-to-head lead.

[ Solbakken om Haaland-kritikken ]

D: If Spain drop points against Cyprus and Georgia in November after losing to Norway, Norway will qualify with their win.

M: If Norway does not finish in the top two, there may be additional opportunities through the Nations League play-offs. It will consist of two single matches played on 21 and 24 March 2024. There are three countries that qualified through the Nations League. Norway is ranked a best of 24th in the 2022 Nations League. For Norway to reach the playoffs, 17 of the 23 countries ahead of Norway in the rankings must qualify through the regular qualifiers. Norway is currently set to be the highest-ranked team out of the playoffs, but that could change after each round. This happened regardless of Norway’s position in the regular qualifiers which ended on November 19. Only the next day, November 20, was the final game played that determined which teams would qualify for the playoffs.

PS. Georgia can no longer finish second in the group, but can actually reach the EC through the playoffs from the Nations League level.

Complicated? Yes. Both for the Norwegian national team and everyone who has to calculate the chances of EC Norway.

Will update when next round is played!

[ Ståle Solbakkens VAR-protest ]

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FACT

The EC in Germany will be played from 14 June to 14 July 2024. The opening match will be played in Munich, the final will be played in Berlin.

The play-off round will be attended by 24 teams. 20 of them qualified through ongoing qualifications. Apart from that, Germany has already qualified as host. The three EC spots will be distributed via the playoffs in March, based on last year’s Nations League results and how the ongoing qualifiers ended.

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