Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre (Ap) confirmed on Thursday that Norway will provide F-16 aircraft to Ukraine. He couldn’t say when or how many, but probably less than ten planes.

Norway’s contribution will not change the course of the war, according to Professor Tormod Heier at the Norwegian Defense Academy Staff School.

– Too few planes arrive late, he stressed.

Waiting for US

He is not surprised by Norway’s contribution and believes that this follows a well-known pattern of Norway in times of crisis just sitting idly by and waiting to see what the United States and other major powers do before we take action.

Last week, the United States gave the go-ahead for further exports of American fighter aircraft to Ukraine. It soon became known that both Denmark and the Netherlands had donated a number of F-16 aircraft.

– When decisions in the US are made, the most forward-looking countries will follow first, in this context the Netherlands and Denmark. Norway has therefore loyally followed in its footsteps to remain on the side of the alliance partners contributing to collective support for Ukraine.

Norway has 57 F-16 fighters, but is in the process of transitioning to the new F-35. 32 F-16s have been sold to Romania, and Norway initially plans to sell 12 to the United States. The last agreement has now been cancelled, said Støre. But the agreement with Romania remains steadfast.

Støre told a press conference in Kyiv on Thursday that Norway decided to donate the fighters after the United States surrendered.

[ Støre bekrefter at Norge skal gi F-16-jagerfly til Ukraina ]

Ten years old

Defense analyst Per Erik Solli at Nupi believes that the Norwegian F-16 aircraft will be a long step forward for Ukraine.

– It is far from being on the same level as the F-35, but much better than the current Ukrainian aircraft, said Solli.

He explained that the planes originally came to Norway in the 80s and have since been modernized and upgraded. He estimated their remaining lifespan to be around ten years.

Solli believes the F-16s will be deployed in Ukraine sometime next year. First, Ukrainian pilots and technicians must be trained in language, technology, tactics and weapons delivery.

– Usually this takes a very long time, but this is an abnormal process. The planes will be delivered to a country that is at war, so here they will probably try to speed up the process as much as possible.

– But Ukraine must have good qualifications when they go to war. Otherwise, they risk being shot down by the Russians. So there is a dilemma between time pressure and quality demands.

[ Zelenskyj avviser vestlig kritikk av strategien ]

– It won’t get any worse

Neither Heier nor Nupi researcher Jakub M. Godzimirski believes that the donation of Norwegian warplanes will do much for relations with Russia.

– Sometimes people say that relations between Norway and Russia have hit rock bottom, but then you hear someone knocking on the door from below. The situation couldn’t get any worse, said Godzimirski.

He pointed out that since day one Norway has chosen to side with Ukraine in the war in the form of political support, monetary support and military support.

– The F-16 is more symbolic and is something that can help Ukraine build a long-term defense capability. This assistance will not have a direct impact on the current battlefield situation, unlike other donations from Norway, such as advanced air defense systems.

Russia also has limited opportunities to react to the donation of warplanes from Norway, Nupi researchers say – be it in a diplomatic, economic or military sense.

[ Dette er prisen for Putins krig i Ukraina etter 18 måneder ]