The latest FAO forecast for world grain production in 2023 was raised in July by 5.9 million tons, which is 0.2 percent. compared to the previous month’s estimate.

FAO estimates world grain production at a record level of 2.819 million tonnes (up by 1.1% y/y) . The increase almost entirely reflects a better outlook for world wheat production. Estimates for this species were raised by 0.9 percent. to 783.3 million tonnes, although still lower than the previous year’s wheat production. FAO in 2022 indicates world wheat production at the level of 801.8 million t. An upward correction is also in place for 2022.

The production forecast for the EU was raised to 288.9 million tonnes (an increase of 7.4% y/y), with generally favorable weather conditions resulting in a slight increase in expected yields, despite the impact of a lack of rainfall on the Iberian Peninsula. Forecasts also improved slightly for Canada and Kazakhstan, which were impacted by higher yields than previously forecast – most of the spring wheat is grown in these regions. Moreover, the latest official estimates show that the wheat harvest in Turkey is higher than the initial estimate. These gains more than offset a significant downgrade for production in Australia, where dry conditions reduce prospects for good yields.

Forecasts for global coarse grain production for 2023 were slightly lowered this month, set at 1,512 million tonnes, still up 2.9% from a year earlier. higher than in 2022. The reduction includes a downward revision of maize production forecasts for East African countries. This is influenced by the distribution of rainfall which limits the yield potential of corn.

Forecasts for global barley production have improved, largely reflecting the official forecast from Türkiye leading to a larger harvest than originally forecast. FAO’s improved estimates also reflect better prospects for Bangladesh and some minor adjustments to production figures for countries along the equator where major crop harvests have already been completed.