• According to Dr. Witold Sokała, the Russian army turned out to be too weak to achieve a breakthrough at a purely military level. Moreover, Vladimir Putin and his entourage have clearly underestimated the economic sanctions that are destroying the Russian economy
• – More stages hanging in the air. Therefore, this weakening of pressure is a race against time for the Kremlin, as the internal explosion is in the air, said the deputy director of the Jagiellonian University Institute of International Relations and Public Policy in Kielce.
• Experts believe that the last chance for Putin’s team is to maximize losses on the Ukrainian side and force Volodymyr Zelensky to surrender to stop the massacre. Hence the increase in shooting against civilian targets
• Dr Sokała claims that in such a situation there will be increased pressure on Kyiv to agree to Russian conditions in the name of peace. At the same time, he argues that if such a scenario were to materialize, it would be a fatal mistake on the part of the West.
• – Today, in fact, the West has Putin and his criminal regime “at a crossroads”, it is enough to wait a little longer, push a little more, of course, at the same time support the Ukrainian cause as much as possible – he told Onet
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Dr Sokała argues that Vladimir Putin and those from his closest circle already know that they are not going to get a breakthrough on a purely military level. For this, the Russian army turned out to be too weak, and Ukraine, supported in terms of equipment and training by NATO countries, too strong. – Even the involvement of the next unit, brought in emergency from the interior of the country, will not change that anymore – says the expert.

“Internal explosion hangs in the air”

According to the deputy director of the Institute of International Relations and Public Policy of the Jagiellonian University in Kielce, economic sanctions, the scale of which Russia had clearly underestimated before, devastated the Russian economy.

– They hit the pockets of ordinary people accustomed to relative prosperity, but they also unexpectedly greatly harmed the vested interests of oligarchs, senior officials and politicians. And more stages in the air. Therefore, reducing this pressure is a race against time for the Kremlin, as the internal explosion is in the air. If it continues like this, it will not be Putin who will negotiate with the West, but whoever will overthrow him, then the easing of sanctions imposed will be negotiated with the West, said Dr. Sokała.

– I often hear the argument that Russia is a nation that, in the name of imperial pride, will eat rotten potatoes for years and will not give up. Maybe that applies to the older generation. But after the collapse of the USSR, a new generation emerged, accustomed to a consumptive lifestyle, well-stocked shops, overseas travel and entertainment. Their representatives are shocked today, because they are missing this opportunity day by day – they will start asking who by whom. And many princesses and lovers of the Russian oligarchs and ministers of the regime, cut off from the boutiques in New York and London, have reflected and rebelled – well, it turns out to be for some it’s real consciousness – adds the expert.

Dr. Sokała: pressure will increase on Kyiv to agree to Russian terms in the name of peace

Dr Witold Sokała believes that the last chance for Putin’s team is to maximize losses on the Ukrainian side and force Volodymyr Zelensky to surrender to stop the massacre. Hence, an increase in shootings of civilian objects and a growing number of reports of crimes against the civilian population in Russian-controlled areas.

– And unfortunately, it can work – he said. – While the will to fight back in Ukraine itself seems strong, despite the bloody loss and destruction, many opinion-forming centers in the West may follow Moscow’s proposals. So, I think, the pressure on Kyiv will increase to agree to Russia’s conditions, namely the neutrality and demilitarization of Ukraine, recognition of the independence of the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, and acceptance of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in the name of peace. , or rather “peace and quiet”. If this happens, and if the fire stops, the Kremlin will shout the success of its military operations for internal use and will have the opportunity to gradually return to normal economic and political relations with the world. It may take years for him to fully recover, but in this way Putin and his people will survive the worst phase of the crisis, he added.

See also: The most difficult Zelensky exam. “It’s impossible to create a character like that from behind a marketer’s desk”

“The West has Putin in its branches”

However, the deputy director of the Jagiellonian University Institute of International Relations and Public Policy in Kielce stressed that if such a scenario were to materialize, it would be a fatal mistake on the part of the West.

– Today he really has Putin and his criminal regime “at a fork”, it is enough to wait a little longer, push a little more, of course, at the same time support the cause of Ukraine as much as possible. Of course humanely and economically. Of course politically, seriously starting talks about accession to the European Union and not confusing the Ukraine issue with Moldova, especially Georgia, Dr. Sokała told Onet.

At the same time, experts argue that what Russia is doing under Putin’s scepter should be punished. And it hurts. – So that in the future neither Russia, nor any other country engulfed in collective madness, will even try to repeat it. On the other hand, if we release it for opportunistic reasons, then in a few years the impudent beast will strike again, this time even more painfully – he believed.

Russia kicked out of the UN Security Council, and Ukraine recognizes NATO?

According to Dr. Sokała, the West, or rather the entire community of civilized nations that comply with international law, must now take the initiative because, in his opinion, it is currently reactive to Russia’s actions.

– In addition to economic sanctions, this should mean raising the level of political sanctions: for example, starting the UN reform process, towards removing Russia from the Security Council or at least limiting its powers as a permanent member. Second, it is useful to formulate your own peace proposal openly: if Russia questions, for example, Ukraine’s rights to Crimea, in response, it should question its rights to Königsberg and the Kuril Islands, which are in fact much weaker. If trying to force Ukraine to be neutral, it should be given the opportunity to join NATO and the conditions and the right path to follow must be determined. We are not helping – today, given its achievements and combat experience, the Ukrainian army will be the pride of this alliance, said Dr. Sokała to us.

– And it is time to purge the agents of Russian influence that have so far been quietly tolerated in other countries. This is already starting to happen, but the scale is too small. While he is largely identified and tracked down by counterintelligence, only bold political decisions are needed to draw practical conclusions from this knowledge, and who needs to be jailed or at least sent to Russia on a one-way ticket – he added.

“China tests the will of the West”

At the same time, experts on the “New Confederation” emphasize that we must not forget the global aspect of the war being waged today on the territory of Ukraine.

– This is actually, in many ways, the first “proxy war” of the new era, namely proxy war. On the flanks are the current superpowers, namely the United States and China, competing “through correspondence”. China released Putin to test the West’s determination to defend its values ​​and interests in practice, said Dr. Sokała.

– If the test is negative for the US and its allies, China’s tendency to resort to a strong solution against Taiwan may increase. On the other hand, if this time aggression is repelled and the aggressor punished – Beijing’s tendency to curb its ambitions, or at least to implement them in a more civilized manner, will intensify. So: by trying to avoid escalating one war at all costs, we seriously risk the outbreak of another war, which has the potential to do much more damage to the world political system and the global economy, he added.

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