Since the start of the war, stories and videos showing Russia’s lack of bureaucratic functioning and corruption have abounded on social media and in newspapers.

Now another amazing story has been revealed.

For Russia’s state-owned online newspaper Newspaperwrote in the longer case that the Russian military lacked 1.5 million uniforms in winter.

– This is just another factor that points to Russian corruption. Time and again we see that they are short on equipment and items in stock are under-maintained, or in the worst case, lost. Either military leaders have sold the equipment or never made the necessary purchases. That Russian corruption was a major factor in the war must be a fact at this stage, Tom Røseth, principal at the National Defense College, insists.

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– A big challenge

The case of the Russian online newspaper led to much criticism of the former deputy defense minister, Dmitry Bulgakov. The newspaper said that Bulgalov should not be employed in any other position.

And Røseth stressed that the lack of uniforms ahead of winter could hurt Russia.

– This is of course a big challenge, personal equipment is very important. Previously, there were reports of missing sleeping bags and sanitation equipment, while others were told to bring personal equipment. If these stories are true, it’s another factor that will undermine motivation, and it will only become more important as winter approaches, Røseth said.

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Røseth, who has followed the war in Ukraine since its inception, said both sides struggled with conditions last winter. He kept pointing out that it would be the worst for either party.

– It is clear that it is the worst for the Russian side, which does not fight for the existence of its country. The most motivated side will have the advantage, while Ukraine now have an important win heading into the winter. “Cold is a huge factor, but at the same time I find it hard to believe they don’t have winter gear, after all they are trying to mobilize,” he said.

Make corruption visible

Røseth said that several Russian reports had warned against corruption within the Russian military. Among other things, a report from Russian prosecutors in 2018 is said to have shown that corruption then quadrupled compared to previous years.

– I think we in the West underestimated corruption in the Russian military before the war, said Røseth.

And while the media and social media often highlight shocking and sometimes embarrassing stories on the Russian side, Røseth shows that Russia is still a great power.

– Do not underestimate Russia in the long run, because they have great mobilization capabilities, even if a lot of service age has gone, there is still a large base to take off. This is a war that could last a long time, and Russia is the largest country in the world, with a huge population and 25 million people on a mobilization base. Sooner or later they will get military results from mass mobilization. But at that point, war could become politically difficult for the Kremlin.

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Can last for two years

While Russia may be strong in the long run, Ukraine still has the initiative for now, and will probably have it over the winter. Ukraine also has a large mobilization base with a population of over 40 million.

– In winter, I think Ukraine will have a big advantage, and they will probably use it to move the front lines, especially in southern and eastern Ukraine. More significant military losses would increase discontent in Russia with the course of the war. The only places Russia is attacking now are in parts of Donetsk, because there Russia has a lot of soldiers from the Wagner Group and other good troops. But or whether Ukraine has the initiative.

Røseth once again shows that Russia has the capacity to go to war for a very long time, if the political will persists. But how long will the war actually last?

– I quickly thought it could last for about two more years. At least it would last until next winter if nothing surprising happened. And it will be very serious for Europe, this winter will be faced by Europe, while the next one can be difficult without Russian energy.

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