– War in Ukraine he had surprised those who had observed him countless times. first Ukraine’s effective defense and ineffective Russian offensive made a thesis about the rapid capture of the fallen Ukraine. Then it turned out that the next stage – this mythical “great battle” in the Donbas also did not go according to Russian plans – he said Mariusz Cielma, editor-in-chief of “New Military Techniques”.

– In Donbas, Russia, the in the first phase of the invasion, it did not address the command, communication and logisticsoperates in multiple directions, focusing on eastern and southeastern Ukraine. This stage, as expected, will be closer to the “traditional” way of war, more familiar to Russia. Nonetheless, despite the slow gains, it is difficult to speak of the spectacular success of the Russian side – judging experts.

– Russia has been modernizing its troops for more than a decadeaspires to be one of the world’s leaders. It turns out that, despite these changes, the army is not modern, because still trying to fight the “old way” and committed an unforgivable mistake from a military point of view – added the expert.

In this context, it lists Russian column stretched near Kiev without effective air defensewhich has become an easy target for Ukraine, serious problems with logistics and supply shortages on a mass scale, failed landing on Hostomlwhich – as intended – would form the basis of an attack on the capital. – The reinforcements that were scheduled to land on the occupied runway at Hostoml, and the troops that would soon join by land, did not arrive – explained Cielma.

– In modern Western armies, air support systems are decentralizedalmost every smaller unit has soldiers equipped with appropriate radio stations and can provide air support within minutes. In the case of Russia, this seems very centralized. Moreover, they use unencrypted communications, which makes it possible to eavesdrop on them. Thanks to this, we know that the coordinates of the target are not received from the fighting soldiers, but somewhere from the command point – said Cielma.

He emphasized, this shows that the path of circulation of information and leadership decisions is very long. apply airlines cannot provide direct support to units on the ground.

– Generally there is no such thing as an integrated battlefield in this army. The different formations act as separate islands without close coordination. Another problem is the lack of delegation of decisions to lower levels of command, which greatly expands the process and reduces reaction speed, the expert emphasized.

According to him the Russian army also proved incapable of fighting effectively in the city. – As a result, we see Mariupol razed to the ground and shooting and bombing tactics, with a large number of casualties among civilians, as well as remnants of Ukrainian troops still defending themselves at the bombed Azovstal factory – expert points out.

Russia, as many analysts emphasize, uses airborne troops as ordinary infantry to attack, which they lost a lot of trained soldiers.

– Today is trivial to say that the Russian army was struck by its weakness, and the Ukrainian army was struck by its organization, its training and, above all, by its motivation and determination.which is clearly not on the Russian side, but it needs to be emphasized, even if everyone has already said so, he said.

Not only were the predictions of experts in the West verified, but also – very seriously – the plans of Russia.

– Initially, all of Ukraine was targeted. And the point is not that Russian tanks will be stationed near Lviv. Moscow hoped to arrest Kyiv, destabilize and eliminate political authority, but it didn’t. Due to the inability to occupy the capital, Russia has announced a new goal – the eastern Ukrainian detachment. At the turn of March and April, Russia announced its withdrawal from Kiev and from the north of the country and focus on Donbas and defend overland corridor to Crimea. Now we can see again that this goal may change and Russia may stop in the Luhansk region, Cielma said.

The direction of the next war is hard to predict, but, as experts predict, it will be in the next stage of the war “Russia will fight with aging equipment”and Ukraine, if the declaration of Western hardware support is implemented – the more recent.