The table is set. The stage is set. The old go, the young come. The end of an historical era could – incredibly – lead to several years of Norwegian domination.

At least that’s what it says on paper regarding the Ballon d’Or, an award given annually by France Football magazine to the world’s best player, based on the votes of 100 journalists. Some snort at the appreciation because soccer is a team sport.

But when legendary names have to be compared with each other, the Ballon d’Or has immense significance as the most prestigious individual award one can receive.

For a long time it was about two names. Lionel Messi has seven titles, Cristiano Ronaldo five and none more than three. The only ones to receive the award since 2008 are Luka Modric (2018) and Karim Benzema (2022). Prior to the October selection, which runs for 2022-23, the favorite was again Messi, as he won the World Cup in December.

But this season, it’s a free striker. For now, both legends are lost.

Not like in tennis

In January, Ronaldo traveled to Saudi Arabia, where he joined Benzema. In July, Messi left for the United States. Considering that Modrić will soon be 38 years old, that means we are 99% sure to see a new Ballon d’Or winner for 2023-24.

Even Messi and Ronaldo shouldn’t be able to win awards for teams outside of Europe. The American MLS is far from the top tier in Europe, and consulting firm TwentyFirst Group considers the Saudi Pro League weaker than Eliteserien. Only a European Championship title for Portugal next summer can bring Ronaldo back, and even that may not be enough.

Rarely do you see such a clear generational change in sports. There are many fans who have never lived in a world where Messi and Ronaldo don’t fight for the top. Parallels can be drawn to tennis, where Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have dominated for 20 years.

But there the shift is slower. There have been six years between Federer (42), who retired last year, and Djokovic (36), who won two of three Grand Slam tournaments this year and still has the physique of a 26 year old.

In soccer, two of the greatest players of all time have left the center stage at the same time. They have ended the biggest individual rivalry in the sport.

Now it’s the young players’ turn.

Perfect position

And that especially means Erling Braut Haaland. If France score in extra time in the World Cup final against Argentina, Jærbuen is already set to be crowned the world’s best. When you win the three biggest tournaments in one season, and score 52 goals in that time, you have every right to hope for that much.

But then Messi clinched the World Cup title for Argentina, which made him the favorite for the 2022-23 season. Scandinavia may have to wait for its first Golden Ball among men since Danish striker Allan Simonsen won it in 1977.

The second “Nordic” Ballon d’Or was won by Ada Hegerberg in 2018.

No one can expect Haaland to dominate like Messi or Ronaldo. What this duo has done is nearly inhuman. But right now he was in the perfect position to take his place at the top. The Ballon d’Or is often awarded to the person who scores the most goals and wins the most titles. Haaland is the top scorer in the world’s best teams. He is 23 years old. The biggest obstacle between Haaland and the Ballon d’Or is that he is Norwegian – the national team has struggled enough to win the championship, let alone win it.

At the same time, history shows that the Champions League is most important in selection. Of the last 15 Ballon d’Or winners, 10 have won the tournament in the same year. Only one of them has won EC or WC in the same year – Ronaldo in 2016.

Stars in the shadows

Who is Haaland’s biggest rival? A good starting point is a newspaper listing Guardwhich annually ranks the world’s 100 best players.

Last year, these were the top 10 among men:

1. Lionel Messi (PSG)

2. Kylian Mbappe (PSG)

3. Karim Benzema (Real Madrid)

4. Erling Braut Haaland (Man City)

5. Luka Modric (Real Madrid)

6. Kevin De Bruyne (Man City)

7. Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona)

8. Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)

9. Thibaut Courtois (Real Madrid)

10. Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)

If we talk about the Ballon d’Or, several names can be crossed off the list. Messi and Benzema are gone. Thibaut Courtois has suffered a ligament injury and could miss this season. And since goalscorers usually get the attention, minions like De Bruyne and Luka Modric could quickly end up in the shadows.

As such, two names stand out as strong candidates: Brazilian dribbling winger Vinícius Júnior and lightning-fast French striker Kylian Mbappé.

The duel we’ve been waiting for

Many have long predicted that Haaland and Mbappé would become football’s new great rivalry. It started in February 2021, when Mbappé scored a hat-trick for Paris Saint-Germain against Messi’s Barcelona. The following day, Haaland scored twice for Dortmund against Sevilla.

Haaland later said he had seen Mbappé’s goal and received “free inspiration”.

However, for various reasons the duel had not yet started. Haaland only played one season for a team that could actually win the Champions League, while Mbappé is staying at PSG, a dysfunctional club that continues to stumble in the knockout stages.

Mbappé is now 24 years old and is nowhere near the Ballon d’Or other than fourth. In addition, he was frozen from PSG for refusing to extend his contract. No one knows where he will play this season.

This means Haaland’s biggest rival is Vinícius.

Resistance from Madrid

Vinícius wreaked havoc in La Liga last season and is cruising as Real Madrid’s biggest star now that Benzema is gone. That status will only be threatened if Mbappé storms the capital, which many believe will happen either in the next few weeks or next summer.

Regardless, in fact the 2023-2024 Golden Ball favorite will soon become an offensive star who wins the Champions League. So, we have to include Lewandowski, Salah and Harry Kane, if a transfer to Bayern Munich is confirmed. In fact, we can’t rule out Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard either, considering Arsenal are so strong.

This season, Mbappé and Saka also have the advantage of playing for France and England respectively, countries that could win the European Championship in Germany next summer.

Nevertheless, Haaland seems most ready to fill the void left by Messi and Ronaldo. Maybe he would say that individual awards are not important, that the team always comes first. Fair enough.

But in a country of mountains and snow where no one under the age of 23 has ever seen the national team play in a championship, it is a special thought that the winner of the Men’s Ballon d’Or one day will be a Norwegian.