Within a week, Ukraine had reclaimed some 700 square kilometers of territory in Kharkiv Oblast after a surprise blitzkrieg that inflicted “significant losses” on Russian troops.

Ukrainian troops are still advancing, and on Saturday morning there were unconfirmed reports that Ukraine has also recaptured the strategic and important city of Kupyansk.

The supply lines used by Russian troops at Izium, southwest of Kupjansk, depended on the route through Kupjansk.

– If Ukrainian troops manage to cut off supplies to Izium, Russian troops there will one day run out. Then they risk being overrun by Ukrainian forces, and the relatively large territory occupied by Russia will collapse, former defense chief Arne Bård Dalhaug told Dagbladet.

– Can’t be hidden

But the consequences of a Ukrainian blitzkrieg could also have a much bigger ripple effect. The supply line passing through Kupjansk also headed southeast to the Russian-occupied part of the Donbas region.

– Precisely for this reason, a Ukrainian attack in the Kharkiv area will be able to affect the entire Russian front in the region, Dalhaug said.

In the first instance, a Ukrainian offensive around Kupjansk, if successful, could force Russian troops to surrender Izium, according to retired lieutenant general Dalhaug.

– For now, I think Russian forces will try to contain Izium, but if Ukrainian forces have taken Kupyansk, it will clarify Russia’s need to withdraw troops, while there is still time, said Dalhaug, who between 2016 and 2019 was a civilian observer for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Ukraine.

For Russia, this is bad news.

– If they had to withdraw from Izium, it would be a defeat that couldn’t be hidden, Dalhaug said.

If the Russian troops withdrew from Izium, it would be obvious to “straighten” the front. If you look at today’s map of Russia’s position, you can see that the Russian front around Izium is entering like an enclave into Ukrainian-controlled territory.

– Ukrainian troops performed a similar maneuver when they withdrew from Sievjerodonetsk and Lysytjansk, which were also in the enclave. Since then, they have formed a new line of defense, and are on hold for now, Dalhaug said.

Have a “sudden” advantage

Currently, Ukraine is carrying out two main counter-offensives: an attack on Kherson in the south and an attack on the Kharkiv region in the north.

The first was warned, the second came suddenly, even though it wasn’t hero unexpected, according to Dalhaug, who between 2005 and 2008 was chief of the Defense Staff.

The retired lieutenant general highlighted two important factors that could explain why Ukraine chose to launch another offensive in the north:

• Redeployment of Russian troops in the north.
• A long, porous front line passes through Ukraine.

– Over time, Russia has moved troops from north to south in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian attack on Kherson. This has thinned the front line to the north. From being equal, the Ukrainian army suddenly won without having to add more power. Ukraine’s military leadership has analyzed the situation and may have found that now is a good time to launch an attack in Kharkiv, Dalhaug said.

– Desperate expression

And there are many areas where it is possible to launch a counter-offensive along the front line in Ukraine, which is more than 1,000 kilometers long.

– At most, each side has around 100,000 soldiers on each side of the front line. This means that there are large areas along the front lines where neither side has power, Dalhaug said.

In terms of military history, he believes it is interesting to compare it to the front lines that separated the parties from one another during the First World War.

– The Western Front during the First World War, stretching from Flanders to Switzerland, was significantly shorter than the front in Ukraine, but there were millions of soldiers on each side. They had a completely different troop density, and a more established front line. In Ukraine, the front line is porous, and in theory could quickly swing in any direction, Dalhaug said.

Pro-Russian Blogger: “Collapse”

Pro-Russian military bloggers now take a bleak view of the situation in Kharkiv. Perhaps the most famous of them all, Igor Girkin, was immediately distressed after the Ukrainian blitzkrieg in the north.

Russia’s Girkin, a former intelligence officer and military leader of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, has long condemned Russia’s military efforts in northern Ukraine.

This is how he reacted to the news that Ukraine would retake Kupyansk:

“If this is true, it means that the front in this area has simply collapsed.” wrote Girkin on Telegram.

Will “capture” Putin’s soldiers

At the same time, Russia’s state news agency reported that Russia is now sending reinforcements to Kharkiv.

– The question is whether they really have reinforcements to send, said retired Lieutenant General Dalhaug.

– If the Russians have reservists available, why don’t they keep their troops in Kharkiv first, and send reservists to Kherson, he asked rhetorically.

He had no doubts about what it meant:

– We have known for a long time that the Russian troops are running low, and they are “short” in many ways. Everything indicates that they do not have enough troops to send to Kharkiv without sacrificing other positions, Dalhaug said.