US President Joe Biden recently claimed that the Kremlin regime is more isolated than ever, but that seems largely wishful thinking, experts say.

– The West has clearly isolated Russia, especially with the help of a series of sanctions that make trade and economic transactions difficult, says Sylvie Matelly. He is Deputy Head of the French Institute for International Relations and Strategic Affairs (IRIS).

– When it comes to the isolation of Russia internationally, the situation is completely different. A number of cautious countries have refused to give in to Western pressure, he said.

Punishment

When Russian troops invaded Ukraine on February 24, and the Kremlin claimed its aim was to demilitarize and de-Nazify the country, it resulted in violent protests and warnings of isolation and severe sanctions from American and European leaders.

In the weeks that followed, NATO and the European Union closed airspace to Russian aircraft. The United States also issued a ban on imports of Russian oil and gas, as well as seafood, vodka and diamonds.

Several Russian banks were excluded from Swift’s international payments system, and hundreds of Russians affiliated with Putin and the Kremlin have been put on sanctions lists and denied entry to European countries.

[ Bloomberg: Misnøye blant enkelte Putin-allierte ]

Don’t want to

Around the world, reactions to the invasion were more cautious, and when the United Nations General Assembly on March 2 passed a resolution calling for Russia’s withdrawal, 35 countries abstained, including China, India, Pakistan and South Africa.

Latin America’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, have also refused to support sanctions against Russia.

– More and more countries are more willing to assert their independence, despite the fact that they seek closer cooperation with the West and seek Western support, Chris Landsberg stated. He is Professor of International Relations at the University of Johannesburg.

– Condemning the invasion of Ukraine is one thing, imposing economic sanctions on Russia is something completely different. Many countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia do not want to cross the border, said former Chilean ambassador to India and South Africa, Jorge Heine.

– They don’t want to be pushed into situations that don’t serve their own interests, either financially or in other ways, he said.

[ – Folk flest i Russland føler på sterk uro og frykt. Da slår den såkalte «fight or flight»-responsen inn ]

Imagination

This appears to be the case with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which also have not come out against Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. The same is true for India, which also abstained when the Security Council voted in February on a resolution condemning the invasion.

– For India, war means a difficult and unwanted choice between the West and Russia, a choice the country’s leaders have made to avoid it, said Shivshankar Menon. He was a security adviser to former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

“The United States is an important and necessary partner for India’s modernization, but Russia is an important partner for geopolitical and military reasons,” Menon wrote in an article earlier this month. The title of the article is “Free world fantasy: Does democracy really stand together against Russia?”.

[ Putin sparker russiske offiserer: – Befalet er under intensivt press ]

Limited results

French diplomat Michel Duclos, once ambassador to Syria, among others, is not surprised by the lukewarm attitude of many countries on the issue of punitive measures.

– We did not have India or Brazil with us during the war in Syria and also after the first crisis in Ukraine, he said.

– We have to ask ourselves why, and if there is anything we can do to build stronger bridges to these countries. This question is more relevant than ever, Duclos said.

[ Vil du vite mer om Ukraina, Russland og Putin? Disse bøkene gir svar (+) ]

Closed outside

Western countries have succeeded in removing Russia from several international forums. The meeting of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), which was supposed to be held in Russia in June, has been indefinitely postponed.

The country has also been suspended from the UN Human Rights Council and the International Council for Ocean (Ice) Exploration, and Russia recently left the Council of Europe and the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) shortly before voting on the ban.

International sports organizations and cultural institutions have also frozen all cooperation with Russia, but efforts to exclude the country from the G20 group of industrialized nations were stopped by Indonesia, which holds the presidency.

Ukraine’s requests to remove Russia from the Security Council, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are also doomed to fail.

[ Sergej Lavrov, Russlands diplomatiske steinansikt: – Hvem i helvete er du til å ta meg i skole ]

No immediate effect

The heavy economic sanctions imposed on Russia have also not had a direct impact on the country’s war in Ukraine.

“The sanctions are harsh enough, but they don’t prevent Putin from extending the siege of Mariupol or attacks on other cities,” said Judy Dempsey of the think tank Carnegie Europe.

“If the goal is to convince Putin to withdraw his troops from Ukraine, then it has to be said that it didn’t work,” he said.

“He has clearly lowered his ambitions, but more as a result of the determination of the Ukrainian forces than because of sanctions,” Dempsey said.

The case continues during the video

Have a backup

It will take time before the effects of Western sanctions take full effect, said Russian analyst Alexei Vedev at the Gaidar Institute of Economic Policy in Moscow.

– The picture of the Russian economy will become clearer in June or July, as the economy now functions as a result of reserves, he said.

– Reserves are dwindling, but as long as they exist, sanctions are not fully experienced, says Vedev.

Economic sanctions are also having a limited effect in food and energy self-sufficient countries, other experts point out.

The war in Ukraine has resulted in record high food and energy prices around the world, and this benefits Russia as long as they can export. And as long as the countries are highly populated and still willing to trade with Moscow.

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