First of all, the speed at which the Ukrainian army was retaking territory in the northeast of the country surprised many Western military analysts at the end of last summer. Within days, Ukrainian troops liberated the Kharkiv region. In particular in the fighting around the small town of Kupiansk, the Ukrainian army rapidly advanced 90 kilometers into Russian-occupied territory.

Key to this military success was the interplay of tanks, artillery and the use of drones for reconnaissance – which together made rapid strikes possible. – Ukraine has shown in its very successful mechanized movement towards Kupiansk that it is capable of fighting a combined force war – said Nico Lange, an expert on Ukraine from the Munich Security Conference, in an interview with DW.

“Joint arms” is something like the military DNA of NATO from the Cold War era. “That means the interplay of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, supported by artillery, and today also by drones,” explained Lange. They are interconnected by constant communication in coordinated operations. This strategy originated with the Prussian military reformer Carl von Clausewitz in the early 19th century and is still taught in western military academies today.

Communication and coordination

Russia, on the other hand, is demonstrating in Ukraine “that it cannot do battle with combined forces,” says military analyst Yigal Levin in Kiev. In an interview with DW, a former Israeli army officer and well-known military blogger in Ukraine said that the Russians are trying to implement this concept, but they lack “competent commanders” and “good coordination between individual units” to succeed.

It is precisely communication and coordination that is lame in the Russian army. This is because Russia “inherited the backbone, the organizational structure of the Soviet army,” says Levin. In turn, the Ukrainian army, which also emerged from the Soviet Union, has used American and Canadian training programs since the “Kremlin aggression of 2014”, especially for young Ukrainian commanders, says one military blogger. In addition, “hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have gained experience at the front since 2014.”

Western Tanks

– If Ukraine now gets more tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, it will be able to organize units that can make such breakthroughs also in the south or in the east – analyzes Nico Lange. Ukrainian experts referred to the AMX-10 RC West infantry fighting vehicles from France, Bradley from the US and Marder from Germany. Berlin (after much resistance) wants to send 40 units.

Ukraine may receive the British Challenger 2

Now the discussion is about tanks. The UK has confirmed its intention to supply the Ukrainian Army with the Challenger 2, the first Western main battle tank by NATO standards. For several days, there was a heated debate in Germany about the supply of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Poland. Since this is a German-built tank, approval for the export of such weapons to a war zone must be approved by the government’s Federal Security Council chaired by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The decision at Ramstein?

January 20 50 US allies assembled in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet again at the US military base Ramstein in Germany. It is very likely that the German government will come under further pressure to send tanks to Ukraine.

Especially given the heavy fighting around Soledar and Bakhmut, it’s clear that the Russian armed forces are putting increasing pressure on the Ukrainian troops there. However, Russia paid for this with heavy losses, including the recently mobilized army. Many in Ukraine refer to this front as the “meat grinder”, in reference to the brutal trench warfare of World War I.

A counterweight to Russia’s advantage

For American military expert Michael Kofman, it is difficult to predict the further development of the situation on the eastern Ukrainian front. “The Russian military has used mobilization to some extent,” said a Russian expert who advises the US Navy on his latest podcast on the situation in Ukraine. He doubted that the Russian forces were ready for a further major offensive beyond Bakhmut. Ukraine, on the other hand, has made “only small gains since last fall, but that doesn’t mean its next offensive won’t be successful,” Kofman said.

HIMARS missile launcher: Western military equipment is very important for Ukraine

Many Western analysts agree that Ukraine and Russia are preparing a new offensive. “With the influx of newly mobilized troops, Russia will have some offensive capabilities in 2023,” estimates Australian military blogger Mick Ryan. But the former major general also noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin “no longer has the resources that he had in February 2022.”

If Ukraine has Western tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, it can deploy them alongside other Western weapons systems it has delivered – such as the German Gepard anti-aircraft tank, the Panzerhaubitze 2000 mobile artillery system, and the US HIMARS rocket launcher – which, according to Western Logic, complement each other as “combination of troop types”. Thanks to its speed and mobility, the Ukrainian armed forces must keep up with Russia’s military advantage in equipment and manpower. Provided “it will go quickly” with the delivery of the tanks, said German expert in Ukraine Nico Lange.

Collaboration: Mykola Berdnik