The situation in the Middle East as it was before World War I.

Posted On: October 28, 2023

In some ways, the situation in the Middle East is similar to that of August 1914, when major powers nervously prepared for battle, said Matt Shoemaker, a former analyst at the DIA military intelligence agency. He added that Russia is both benefiting from these tensions and further exacerbating them.

Raids on military installations

On Thursday evening, US forces launched airstrikes against military installations in Abu Kamal, Syria, used by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the militias they support. This is a response to a campaign of attacks against US troops in Syria and Iraq by Tehran-controlled forces that has been ongoing for more than a week. Although similar attacks had occurred many times before and were ineffective (according to the Pentagon, 21 soldiers suffered brain injuries), in the context of the war between Israel and Hamas, the firefight raised fears of an outbreak of a wider conflict.

According to Shoemaker, a former analyst at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), although neither Iran nor the US want to cause direct conflict, conflict could still occur.

The aim of Thursday’s attack, apart from destroying military assets, was to send a message to Iran: this is not Iran’s cause and they should stay away from it. However, the way policymakers in Iran interpret this message may differ significantly from Washington’s intentions. It is likely that honor and emotions will be so stirred in Iran that this will not be seen as an opportunity to retreat, but as a call to increase its activities.

– said the expert.

This is certainly a very dangerous time. In some ways, we feel like we are back in August 1914, when all the major powers were nervously awaiting the upcoming battle.

said the shoemaker.

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President Biden ‘too cautious’?

According to PAP interlocutors, Iran’s main motivation in the current crisis is the desire to use the current tensions to abolish the Abraham Accords, namely normalizing Israel’s relations with neighboring Arab and Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia. According to him, Tehran considers President Joe Biden to be too cautious and too old to be ready for open confrontation.

According to Shoemaker, uncertainty and fear of further worsening the situation – which is also experienced by the US – is also the reason for delaying Israel’s decision to launch a ground attack on the Gaza Strip.

Israel is trying to find other ways to destroy Hamas without the bloodshed and international backlash that a ground invasion could trigger.

– say.

When asked about Russia’s stance on the conflict – Hamas and Iranian delegations visited Moscow on Thursday – Shoemaker said that Russia was one of the beneficiaries of the crisis because it diverted the attention of the international community from the war in Ukraine.

Hosting Hamas and Iranian delegations is a way for Russia to fan the flames of a conflict it cannot afford to be involved in, but it would likely drag the United States into a very expensive and bloody war in the Middle East.

– said the analyst.

At the same time, Russia is trying to show the world that it is still a major player in the Middle East, capable of influencing Palestinian and Iranian decisions.

– he added.